Friday, September 19, 2014

DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY WEEK 3 NFL 2014

I will  put a (FP) next to one player in each position for my Favorite pick aka FLIPS PICK based on their value & match-up.
Abbreviations: Cost Per Point(CPP) Flips Pick (FP) Guaranteed prize pool (GPP)
Now lets get it!
QB: Best Plays:
Drew Brees ($8,900)- The Vikings secondary is not good and really would have gotten exposed if the Pats had to put points up.  Brees is 0-2 going home, I would be shocked if he does not go for 300+ yards this Sunday.  
Matthew Stafford (FP) ($8,800)- Just like Brees, Stafford is much more comfortable at home.  This game with the Packers should be high scoring.  Another plus is that Bush + Bell get a lot of their work in the screen game padding Stafford's passing yards.  FYI I love Rodgers this week too but since he cost $400 more, I would take Stafford as they should have similar performances.
Russel Wilson ($6,800)- Russ is averaging 18.2 FPPG which is solid so far for his price point.  This wont be a repeat of the championship so the Seahawks will have to throw the ball some because Denver should put points up.  With a loss last week coming back to the 12th man I think Russ has a huge day taking control of the game.
QB: Worst Plays:
Andrew Luck ($9,200)- I have a feeling that the Colts will run run run to victory this week against the desperate Jaguars.  Luck should have 200+ and at least one TD pass but for $9,200 thats not enough.  Stick with Rodgers, Brees, or Stafford this week.
RB: Best Plays
DeMarco Murray  ($7,900)- Murray has been the workhorse this season in a run 1st Cowboy offense.  The Rams just let Bobby Rainey have big game and I see a better offense in Dallas.
Giovani Bernard ($7,300)- Giovani went off last week and could have had two TD's if Jeremy Hill didn't get that goal line touch.  He carried the ball 27 times and had 5 catches.  They will probaly run the ball all over the Titans who just let Murray have a field day.
Andre Ellington (FP) ($5,400)- Jonathan Dwyer just was arrested for domestic violence so hes out of here.  Ellington will have to strap on his big boy pants because he will get 20+ carries this week instead of 15 with dwyer stealing about 8 a game. He is a speedster and has big play potential anytime he touches the ball.
Rashad Jennings ($5,200)- You can guarantee Jennings will get a heavy amount of carries and looks in the passing game.  He is the Giants workhorse and has played well despite his team not helping out to much.
Pierre Thomas ($4,900) + Khiry Robinson ($3,900)- With Mark Ingram out for at least a month both Thomas and Robinson will have a increased workload.  Look for big games from these guys going against a Vikings team who let the Pats run all over them.  Robinson should get the goal line carries, also if the Saints get up big Robinson should be the one running the game out.
Donald Brown ($3,500)- Surprise surprise Ryan Matthews got injured again sadly.  Brown will be the man in charge of taking the early down carries and goal line touches.  He had 3 catches last week too so he is a capable receiving threat also.
RB: Worst Plays
C.J. Spiller ($6,200)- Only 14.3 and 13.9 points so far this season.  There are much better options for this price, especially since he splits carries with Fred Jackson.
Shane Vereen  ($5,100) + Steven Ridley ($4,700)- Unless you handcuff these guys which I dont recommend I would stay away from them here.  It seems Vereen will play more when the game is close and Ridley when they are comfortably leading. With Belichick at the reigns your not sure whats going to happen.  Just better to stay away until there is a clear #1 back...if that ever happens.
WR: Best Plays
Calvin Johnson (FP) ($8,900)- Megatron at home against a Packers defense who has let up a lot of points this year sounds good to me.  He will bounce back big after getting contained by the Panthers last week.
Jordy Nelson ($8,400)- Cam Newton threw for a lot of yards last week against the Lions defense and the Packers have more firepower then the Panthers.  Just because Jordy had a huge game doesn't mean he wont have another one.
Antonio Brown ($7,100)- Maybe the fastest WR in the game right now seems to be Big Ben's go too, like he should be.  If he didn't get taken out last week early against the Ravens I think that game would have been a lot different.  The Steelers will most likely have to outscore Carolina by throwing the ball to win because their defense is going allow points.
Demaryius Thomas ($6,600)- So cheap but yet so much to be scared of to play him.  Playing away against Seattle is enough to be scared of, plus if Wes plays how will that effect the offense.  You have a high ceiling with a very low floor here.
Cordarrelle Patterson ($6,100)- Hit or miss at its best, Cordarrelle Patterson.  Look if this guy gets in the open field he is gone no doubt.  If you take Patterson make sure you don't pick the Saints defense in GPP contests.
Marques Colston ($5,400)- After being shadowed by Joe Haden last week Brees should look to tear up that Vikings secondary.  Just hope that its Colston getting the looks, a cheap buy this week with huge upside.
Percey Harvin ($5,400)- After not being involved much last week against the Chargers Harvin went real cheap to $5,400.  Seattle will plan to involve him a bunch this game because Harvin was the X factor in week 1.
Victor Cruz ($5,200)- Cruz is bound to have a good game soon enough right??? Still the most targeted receiver for the Giants should look to have a 100+ yard game this Sunday.
Golden Tate ($5,000)- Tate doesn't have a TD yet this season but has had good production with a solid amount of targets.  For $5,000 I don't think you can pass up on him this week in what should be a high scoring game against the Packers.
WR: Worst Plays
A.J. Green ($6,900)- First off I am worried that he could re-injure himself.  Secondly if the Bengals get an early lead on the Titans they will just rest Green the rest of the game.  Your playing with fire this week if you go with Green.
James Jones ($5,700)- Two non game changing TD's in the end of both games Jones is a high price for what hes worth.  Against the Pats Defense I cant see him having another TD or much production.
TE: Best Plays
Jimmy Graham ($8,000)- Simply unstoppable if Brees makes a concerned effort to get him the ball.  I will always consider Graham a viable option if you want to spend the big bucks on your TE.
Greg Olsen (FP) ($5,600)- Still the #1 receiving target for Cam and trusted red zone target.  The Steelers just let the Ravens put up two TE TD's on them Thursday night too.
Martellus Bennett ($5,200)- The Jets defense got torn up last week when Rodgers got in his groove.  Bennett has scored in both games and Cutler loves to look for him any down he is throwing.
Larry Donnell (FP) ($4,900)- Eli has really little to throw to until Odell Beckham Jr. suits up which probably wont be this week.  Donnell has led the team in receptions and yards both games so far.  Eli and Donnell have some good chemistry early on, look for him to rely on him running the seams when the Texans blitz.
TE: Worst Plays
Antonio Gates ($6,100)- Gates showed why he was once the best TE in the game but you cannot expect that kind of production week in and week out.  I like other options at $6,000 this week who know they will get targets regardless.
Rob Gronkowski ($5,900)- More than likely the Pats will run the ball down the Raiders throat and when they are in control of the game they will sit Gronk like last game.  Unless he gets the first 2 TD's here I dont like the pick.
Delanie Walker ($5,700)- I put Delanie in Best plays last week and just like that hes in Worst plays.  I dont believe he will have a bigger game then that all season, and defiantly against a stout Bengals Defense at home.
D/ST: Best Plays
New England Patriots (FP) ($3,500)- After dominating the Vikings last week the Pats get another favorable match-up against a Raiders team that struggles to put up points.
Houston Texans ($3,400)- Lets face it until the Giants stop turning the ball over and put up points it will probably be a good match-up for the opposing defense. 
Cincinnati Bengals ($3,300)- Bengals looked sharp against the Ravens and Falcons so far and play at home this week against a Titans team who struggled against a Dallas's defense.
 New Orleans Saints ($3,200)- They thought they would have AP back but everybody knew they were not going to.  At home, Rob Ryan will have his guys ready to go against a limited Vikings offense and probably force Cassel to throw the ball just like the Pats did.
Indianapolis Colts ($3,100)- Same reasoning for picking against the Giants, the Jaguars are even worse and cant protect the QB for their lives.
Dallas Cowboys ($2,500)- Cowboys defense?!?! Yes, they have played well so far this year and against a weak Rams offense the odds look good.  The Cowboys have really made a stand for running Murray and controlling the clock which also helps the defense out.

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